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Astros: The Best MLB Award Odds

This week I did something I have never done before. I placed a bet for two Astros to win for 2023 AL MVP. So naturally I now wondered was it a good bet or even the best bet I could have made. I am NOT on expert on sports gambling. This is just me approaching this subject in my typical LarryTheGM way- with data.


Who is the best bet for MVP or Cy Young this year?


So, let's define what would be the best bet.

  • A Player that would be predicted to deliver a high WAR (defined as 5.0 or greater.)

    • Yes, it is overly simplistic to JUST look at WAR.

    • If you want to consider another stat for "Best" player, use that too.

  • A Player with the highest odds (biggest longshot) of winning the award

    • When I was in Las Vegas, I found a website (vegasinsider.com) that gave me the current odds for MVP at several sportsbooks.

    • Naturally, picking the sportsbook with highest odds means you will get the biggest payout.

Of course, the best players are going to generally have the lowest odds. Therefore, what we are really looking for is the best match. What I have done is multiplied the 2023 projected WAR with the average of the four odds currently posted on the vegasinsider site. This product is how I defined best investment.

This table gives you the best options for an MVP bet. I highlighted the Astros in this table blue.


Here is the table sorted by the best investment. I limited the players on this list to those with projected WARs greater than 5.0. Adding lower projected players does indeed calculate a better score, but I wanted to limit this to the high probability award players. If you want to make a longer shot bet let me know.



Two starting pitchers actually calculate to be the best investment for a bet on MVP. Their odds are inflated by the challenge of a pitcher to be named MVP. I would throw out these options for this analysis.


Therefore, the BEST INVESTMENT to bet on for MVP is


ALEX BREGMAN!


So, I bet on Bregman right? I love Alex Bregman. He may be my favorite Astros player, but I did not bet on Bregman.


Caesars had 3500 odds on Kyle Tucker giving me an investment score of 19031. I think Tucker is going to have a MASSIVE breakout year partly due to the shift going away. I bet on Kyle Tucker. He might be a longshot, but I have ten months to enjoy the possibility.


Caesars also had 1400 odds on Yordan Alvarez giving me an investment score of 7770. Yes, this is a lower score, but I think Alvarez is also going to benefit significantly from the shift going away. I bet on Alvarez as a little more of a safety for the longshot of taking Tucker.


Am I crazy? Well of course. I love the Astros, so why not?


You may be wondering what about the Cy Young futures. What are the best bets on Cy Young?

I limited the players on this list to those with projected WARs greater than 3.5.


Despite Lodolo being projected to have a VERY good WAR of 3.7, I think there is almost ZERO chance he wins the NL Cy Young.


I think it is interesting and fun that the BEST INVESTMENT to bet on for AL Cy Young is


FRAMBER VALDEZ!


An Astros player is the best bet again folks. ASTROS!


Well folks, hopefully this was as fun for you to read as it was for me to write. I am not recommending you make these bets, but I thought it was a fun exercise. I am happy with the bets I made and look forward to winning (kidding!)


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2 Comments


Wesley Morehead
Wesley Morehead
Feb 01, 2023

I would simply bet Alvarez every year for the next 7. One year you will be right. Also, I am optimistic that he wins the old triple crown that season and hits 50 HRs. He may average 40 per over the next 7.

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I also think Tucker and other good base-stealers will benefit from the limited pickoffs. Not typically a huge impact on MVP voting but if he hits a nice milestone like 30-30, that could help.

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