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Astros Quick Bites: The Truth about McCormick vs. Dubon in September

Here is the truth by the numbers about McCormick vs. Dubon in September for the Astros.


McCormick

Who had a 0.331 BABIP for the season had a 0.281 BABIP in September (87 PA)

Who had a 0.362 wOBA for the season had a 0.309 wOBA for September (87 PA)

Who had a 0.345 xwOBA for the season had a 0.323 xwOBA for September (87 PA)

Who hit 87.1 mph exit velocity for the year hit 86.3 mph in September (87 PA)


Do you know what that is? That is a player who was UNLUCKY in September. That is also a player dealing with snark from his manager.


Dubon

Who had a 0.308 BABIP for the season had a 0.333 BABIP in September (69 PA)

Who had a 0.311 wOBA for the season had a 0.360 wOBA for September (69 PA)

Who had a 0.302 xwOBA for the season had a 0.338 xwOBA for September (69 PA)

Who hit 86.7 exit velocity for the year hit 86.1 mph in September (69 PA)


Do you know what that is? That is a player who was LUCKY in September.


The perceived difference in September was

Dubon 0.360 to McCormick 0.309

The actual talent difference reducing the effects of luck was

Dubon 0.338 to McCormick 0.323


Personally, I'd trust the full season.

McCormick 0.345 to Dubon 0.302


Factor this into your analysis of Dusty ALDS lineups.


Astros Dubon McCormick


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