Summary: Stay updated with the Astros' crucial decision-making process with the Abreu Hot Seat Tracker. Why is the team calling up Cabbage and not Loperfido? Why doesn't the team currently align with fan demands?
The Astros fan base is apoplectic with the continued struggles of Jose Abreu. They demand that Joey Loperfido be called up and Abreu be.... well frankly, they don't care as long as he is no longer in the lineup. Unlike fans, the Astros MUST consider the financial ramifications of their decisions.
The team owes Abreu $39M whether he plays or not. Given he already has a -1.1 WAR, they might be better off NOT playing him. You cannot force a player to go on the IL if they don't report any injury.
This situation caused me to post this a few days ago.
Player C is 2023 Singleton's stats in AAA.
The point is despite the loud wailings of this fan base, a majority of them agree that the Astros ALREADY HAVE the best option to Abreu on the team- Jon Singleton.
No one seems to believe that until you take the names away and just look at the stats objectively.
My answer? Let's start this Loperfido for Abreu hot seat tracker to see where this issue goes.
This tracker will be focused on the differences between two stats
wOBA (reflecting how fans perceive things)
xwOBA (reflecting how teams project things to drive decisions)
Hopefully, Loperfido for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker will help us predict when and if things will happen.
In the Minor League Tracker, I have Singleton (called up last year), Cabbage (called up last year), and Loperfido. Data included is 2023 and 2024.
NOTE- THERE WAS AN ISSUE IN THE BASEBALL SAVANT xwOBA DATA!!
This will be updated when resolved! I
IT HAS BEEN FIXED!!
That means in order of xwOBA (the results one might expect based on the contact).
Loperfido 2024- 0.420
Singleton 2023- 0.392
Cabbage 2023- 0.368
Cabbage 2024- 0.357
Loperfido 2023- 0.302
Which version of Loperfido do you trust more? I think the Astros want to see more.
For the Major League Tracker, I have included Abreu and Singleton.
That means in order of xwOBA (the results one might expect based on the contact).
Abreu 2023
Singleton 2023
Singleton 2024
Abreu 2024
Abreu has been HORRIBLE. Period. His 0.124 wOBA is worse than his 0.171 xwOBA. His 0.109 BABIP is unsustainably low. Singleton is also slumping.
Hot Seat Tracker Scale
When comparing MiLB to MLB wOBA/xwOBA stats I adjust the difference by multiplying by 80%.
Loperfido for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker
I said I think the Astros want to see more from Loperfido.
If you ONLY look at the 2024 wOBA stats you are ready to fire someone that Loperfido is not here. If you look at the combined 2023- 2024 xwOBA stats, I think you are aligned with the Astros in needing to monitor the situation.
Which are they doing? They trust the xwOBA more than they do the wOBA and they want a larger sample size.
Let me be completely blunt. The 2023-2024 xwOBA of Loperfido over Abreu DOES NOT currently justify the $39M write off the team would have to take to cut/ DFA/ release Abreu.
If Abreu is DFAd
The Astros would STILL be responsible for the ENTIRE $39M he is owed
NO Team is going to claim him while he is on waivers
Some team MIGHT sign him AFTER he passes through release waivers
He can't sign for more than league minimum and that amount would come off the Astros books. His net salary for this year would be $19.5M-$0.74M. This is immaterial here.
It is a dysfunctional mess with Abreu and this is the sort of thing that happens when amateur GMs (even if they are owners) take reigns of the team.
The LarryTheGM official Loperfido for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker status is We Need to Watch This!
BUT Loperfido is not the only option.
Singleton for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker
Perhaps the fan base would be better off focusing on another option- Singleton.
Singleton is the option that is showing playing time should be shifted to him even if he too has NOT been great. I think this is the active discussion among the decision makers on the Astros.
The LarryTheGM official Singleton for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker status is What Are We Doing?
Given the status here THAT is why I think you have seen Singleton play more.
Cabbage for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker
The Astros made another choice - Trey Cabbage. Cabbage will be joining the team as the 27 player in the Mexico City series.
Why Cabbage? I almost wrote this as an independent article. Here are the basics:
In 2023-2024: Loperfido has 244 AAA PA. Cabbage has 564 AAA PA.
In 2023-2024: Loperfido has a 0.353 xwOBA. Cabbage has a 0.366 xwOBA.
The Astros want help at 1B. In 2023-2024, Loperfido has started 8 games at 1B. In 2023-2024, Cabbage has started 67 games at 1B.
Cabbage is on the 40-man and Loperfido is not.
Folks, Loperfido is an OF that CAN play 1B. Cabbage is a 1B/OF.
If you ONLY look at the 2024 wOBA stats you are ready to fire someone that Cabbage is not here. If you look at the combined 2023- 2024 xwOBA stats, I think you are aligned with the Astros in needing to monitor the situation. They already had to use the option on Cabbage to send him to AAA in March, so bringing him up here in Mexico City gives them an opportunity to see how Cabbage can do.
The LarryTheGM official Cabbage for Abreu Hot Seat Tracker status is We Need to Watch This!
Where do the Astros go from here?
See how Cabbage looks this year after an awful showing in a small MLB sample size in 2023.
It is very possible that Kessinger goes down and Cabbage stays with the team after the Mexico City series.
How do I know this tracker and scale are realistic? Well, I don't. If you can create a better scale, send it to me.
However, here is how the same scale applied to Maldonado and Diaz last year.
Looks about exactly right to me.
What is going to happen?
Dana Brown told us all yesterday
Their Plan:
Time Off
Platoon
See how other guys (Singleton and now Cabbage) do.
If it continues there will be a change
Folks, THIS IS what they have been doing. They know it is bad and they are not going to keep playing him forever. We will track it with this Hot Seat Tracker.