It is the rumor season. The Astros have been connected with at least two top Catchers- Willson Contreras and Sean Murphy. For example,
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
The Astros have emerged as a potential suitor for Sean Murphy, per source. Houston currently has Martin Maldonado as its catcher and has been connected to free agent Willson Contreras. Murphy, a former Gold Glove winner, is under club control through 2025.
Chandler Rome
@Chandler_Rome
Dusty Baker said the Astros will meet with Wilson Contreras and have interest.
Here is how these two project in 2023 and what their projected AAV is for the next three years.
Contreras is likely incrementally better offensively and Murphy is a significantly better defender.
The cost of a Contreras deal
$18-21M AAV payroll
Forfeiture of the second round draft pick
Forfeiture of $500,000 of international signing bonus
The cost of a Murphy deal
51.3 Total Trade Value
Example of Astros players that would approach this trade value
Modified package I proposed for this deal in the reader trade article
Luis Garcia- 45.6- 4 years control
Jake Meyers- 5.3- 5 years control
JP France- 2.0- 6+ years control- #33 Fangraphs Astros Prospect
Total package- 52.9
I assume the first package is the favored one for the Athletics
IF the Astros chose the Contreras package, I suspect they would also
As described in the Winter Meetings Article
Sign High Risk / High Reward Outfielder for One or Two Years- Brantley, Conforto, Bellinger
Trade for/ sign a LHRP- Taylor Hearn
Overall the cost of this would be $26-31M AAV
IF the Astros chose the Murphy package, I suspect they would also
Replace with McCormick by signing Bellinger- High Risk / High Reward CF
Sign High Risk / High Reward LF for One or Two Years-Brantley or Conforto
Trade for/ sign a LHRP- Taylor Hearn
Overall the cost of this would be $22-26M AAV
Plan Summaries
​ | Contreras Plan | Murphy Plan |
Catcher | Maldy 80 Games Contreras 60-70 Games | Murphy 110 Games Maldy 40 games |
Left Field | Brantley/Conforto- 80 G Alvarez- 80G | Brantley, Conforto- 100 G Alvarez 40 G |
Center Field | McCormick- 120 G Meyers/ Others- 40 G | Bellinger- 120 G Meyers/ Others- 40 G |
Which should they do? I would lean to the Contreras plan so I would not have to give up the trade package. This is very close because the Murphy plan has more flexibility in the next few years.
Murphy would be the best answer at catcher but the package to get him makes the Murphy plan less favorable. Plus in the Murphy plan you are counting on signing two OF and not just one.
Let me be clear- I think the Astros are doing the right thing in focusing FIRST now at improving Catcher. It is THE most significant way to improve this team. I am excited to see what happens.
Let me know what you think.
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Murphy, JP Sears and Puk for Peña. Re-sign Correa. I don't care how unrealistic it is.