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Astros: ALDS Game 3 Thoughts and Analysis

I was asked this in Twitter among several far more disrespectful tweets by others.

"This doesn’t warrant a block- Im sincerely interested in your breakdown. I’m wholeheartedly happy you projected wrong and that we beat the odds- do you think it was the at plate approach that changed? Tho we know thay doesn’t affect Javier the run support always helps confidence.”


Here are my thoughts on the Astros ALDS Game 3- this was posted to Patreon members last night.


I did not project wrong. My projections were accurate (I did not make a mistake preparing them) but baseball is going to baseball.


I know you all understand that baseball projections show what is most likely to happen, but the game of baseball does not produce the most likely results in small sample sizes. (Maybe others do not understand this.)


Furthermore, my xwOBA analysis indicated the Astros would have an above average day (0.336 xwOBA) despite all of the actual data. I made it clear that this might come down to actual vs. expected stats.



They did better than that primarily because the player I have been telling this fan base, who have been completely hammering him, was better since June and was back to his All-Star level since returning from the IL. I was the one facing an avalanche of hate for showing Abreu was better. He put on his Superman’s cape and was key with Alvarez today.


Let me add something I tweeted last night here too.

Alvarez and Abreu can CARRY this team to the promised land.

If both of them are hot and the rest of the team is at normal levels of performance, the Astros can do things beyond what one could have seen.


Yes, the Astros significantly outperformed vs. breaking pitches. Bregman said it may have more about being unable to even see the fastballs in the shadows (therefore they were guessing breaking pitches?)


Yes, they appeared to have a good plan vs. Gray. It was unusually well executed vs. breaking pitches.


Yes, I thought it was irresponsible to not play McCormick and Brantley. No one knows what they could have done today.


If you expect me to apologize that Maldy got two hits, you will wait until hell freezes over.


I will also say this about the bats.


You all remember how great Yuli was last year in the post season? Do you remember WHY? Do you remember how we broke down the positive effect of REST on Yuli?


Remember how we said WINNING the division was HUGE for this team because they would get ..... REST?


Fun fact- Abreu already has more RBIs THIS POSTSEASON in 13 PA - 6 than Yuli did last postseason in 50 PA - 4.


Abreu and Maldy would probably benefit the most from the off days of the postseason.

So, what happened with the xwOBA and Javier?


In the first, third, and fifth innings Javier was in significant trouble. He pitched out of it. That was super exciting to see him do. Unlike most in this fan base I was less impressed with the walks and the tightrope act. With the huge Abreu hit and four run lead, I do think Javier was able to pitch to the corners more. This led to the walks, and this led to being effective.


Javier gave up zero runs. His FIP today was 3.26 and this feels like a way more accurate description of his performance - very good but not as good as most may think.?

So, to you all I would say Javier definitely outperformed what I thought he would do. To be more specific, and accurate what the projection MODELS showed he would do.


The offense was better, and Javier was better than projected stats. That led to a victory and a big one.


Let’s go Astros!


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