This evening, I will host a Twitter Space during Game 7. Please feel free to join me there.
This Article is also going to be described on YouTube at 5:00PM today.
Here is the Astros by the numbers breakdown for ALCS Game 7. This is my detailed xwOBA matchup breakdown. No one else takes the time to give you this.
Astros Hitters vs. Scherzer
First, here are the Astros vs. Scherzer in the lineup announced for tonight.
What do you all think of the lineup? It has a projected xwOBA of 0.302 (projected 4.1 Runs per game) vs. Scherzer which is NOT GOOD. The challenging thing here, as we said for game 3, is how long does Max Scherzer even go? I doubt he can bounce back on normal rest and pitch more than 62 pitches. I THINK it is almost a lock that the Rangers throw Dunning or Gray tonight.
IF the lineup hade Yainer Diaz instead of Martin Maldonado, it would project to a 0.319 xwOBA (4.6 Runs per game). Dusty continues to CHOOSE to impair his offense almost a half a run per game and does not care what we or his bosses think about that. I don't care that he doesn't care. I am STILL going to tell you.
This lineup gets a 7 because the Astros are mediocre here in a critical deciding Game 7. Their best hope is that Max has nothing left in the tank and/or he is gone by the third inning.
MVP Tonight- Yordan Alvarez
Rangers Hitters vs. Javier
The Rangers project to have a 0.361 xwOBA (projected 4.9 runs/game) vs, Javier.
As we said before game 3, the Javier numbers are built on season statistics (0.325 xwOBA- 2969 pitches). Since 9/1 and including the postseason, Javier has been SIGNIFICANTLY better over eight starts (0.272 xwOBA- 693 pitches). If we can believe this sample sustains his chart would look like this
THAT is a MASSIVE change for the better.
Here is the challenge for Javier. The September and Post Season starts have been with this many days of rest. The two post season games are the 7 and the 8.
Tonight, Javier is on four days rest. I don't think my worry is an issue. I just wondered if his postseason effectiveness was rest enabled. I don't see evidence of that.
Brown and Urquidy should be semi-effective vs. the bottom five in the lineup today in the lineup today. Each could get the early call. Here is my table summarizing the Rangers matchups and who should (bordered boxes) and who should not (x in box) face each batter tonight.
Neris and Maton are early relief pitching keys. Pressly and Abreu again are the late relief pitchers.
The Rangers lineup gets an 8 from me. If we get late season Javier again, this game could be a classic.
Status of the Pitching Staffs
The info below who is available for Game 6. The players with X in their box are not available. Players fully green are rested.
It is game 7. Players you don't THINK are available ARE. Abreu will likely be suspended. LeClerc and Sborz have had a lot of work. Coud Verlander or Montgomery be called to help tired bullpens.
As a reminder the World Series does not start until FRIDAY. The managers can do almost anything they want here.
Prediction
This game is a complete tossup. I say Javier remains good and the Astros win.
Support the Site
Do you want to support this site? Do you want to make sure you continue to get real analysis like this?
It takes time and it does cost money, I really would appreciate your support of the work. Here is your opportunity to do that at a nominal cost. This support will help me continue to provide you what I do- objective analysis of your teams. It will also help the site improve and expand our reach.
If you don't think our work is worthy of financial support, I will accept your non-action feedback humbly.
The details are available at Patreon.com. It is VERY easy to sign up.
Astros ALCS Game 7 detailed breakdown