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Astros ALCS Game 6 By The Numbers- The Detailed xwOBA Breakdown

This evening, I will host a Twitter Space during Game 6. Please feel free to join me there.

This Article is also going to be described on YouTube at 4:30PM today.

Here is the Astros by the numbers breakdown for ALCS Game 6. This is my detailed xwOBA matchup breakdown. No one else takes the time to give you this.

Astros Hitters vs. Eovaldi

First, here are the Astros vs. Eovaldi in the lineup announced for tonight.

What do you all think of the lineup? It has a projected xwOBA of 0.329 (projected 5.0 Runs per game) vs. Mongomery which is OK. IF the lineup hade Yainer Diaz instead of Martin Maldonado, it would project to a 0.350 xwOBA (5.6 Runs per game).

This lineup gets an 7.5 because the Astros are good here but worse than they could/ should be. Diaz again is the STRONGEST matchup vs. Eovaldi.

MVP Tonight- Yordan Alvarez

Rangers Hitters vs. Valdez

The Rangers made some lineup order adjustments for today. The Rangers projected to have a 0.351 xwOBA (projected 4.9 runs/game) vs, Valdez.

I think the Astros are going to be very quick with a hook for Valdez. This is just a bad lineup for him. Can he STILL succeed? Of course! I am going into this start thinking of Framber more as an opener mentality. I believe he will be pulled after the Grossman / Carter spot in the lineup. Here is why.

Brown would project to be SIGNIFICANTLY better for the fourth through the ninth batters in the Rangers lineup. I believe Valdez will NOT face this part of the lineup a second time unless it is a blowout. Yes, I expect Valdez faces 12 batters. What would the pitching plan be then?

I give you three scenarios here. I THINK Urquidy gets saved for a potential Game 7 backing up Javier.

In an ideal world, Framber gets all 12 of his batters out and Brown gets his six. Then the high leverage bullpen closes out the game.

Note Abreu MAY be asked for more than one inning tonight since he MIGHT lose the appeal tomorrow.

The Rangers lineup gets an 8.5 from me. How long does Valdez overcome the matchup is the story going into the game.

Status of the Pitching Staffs

The info below who is available for Game 6. The players with X in their box are not available. Players fully green are rested.

With the off day, I THINK almost everyone but the Game 5 starters are available.

Dunning would not likely be used either.


The Rangers have the starting pitching matchup advantage. I THINK the Astros have a plan to keep it from getting out of control like Game 2 did.

It is most likely the Rangers win tonight. Not what I want to say or want to see.

In case you missed it. Check out my Open Letter to Arlington

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