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Astros ALCS Game 5 By The Numbers- The Detailed xwOBA Breakdown

Updated: Oct 20, 2023

This afternoon, I will host a Twitter Space during Game 5. Please feel free to join me there.


This Article is also going to be described on YouTube at 3PM today.

Here is the Astros by the numbers breakdown for ALCS Game 5. This is my detailed xwOBA breakdown.


ALCS Game 5 IS the most important game of the year so far.


Astros Hitters vs. Montgomery


First, here are the Astros vs. Montgomery in the lineup announced for tonight.


What do you all think of the lineup? It has a projected xwOBA of 0.335 (projected 5.1 Runs per game) vs. Mongomery which is good.


This lineup gets an 8.5 because the Astros are in a good spot vs. LHSP Mongomery. They have made the best choices for today. Montgomery is REALLY good which keeps it to 8.5.


MVP Tonight- Chas McCormick


Rangers Hitters vs. Verlander

The Rangers made some lineup order adjustments for today. The Rangers projected to have a 0.326 xwOBA (projected 4.9 runs/game).


The Rangers lineup gets a 7.5 from me. I know Taveras has been hot, but I think moving him to 5 is a slight panic move.


Like Game 1, THIS is one that the Astros actually have a SP potential advantage in.




Status of the Pitching Staffs


With today's game I am adding a chart the relative fatigue level of every pitcher and who may not be available.


The info below who is available for Game 5. The players with X in their box are not available. Players fully green are rested.

For the Astros, Brown and Maton may not be available.

For the Rangers all of these have pitched 2 straight days and are likely not available- Bradford, Perez, Smith, and Stratton are likely not available.


The Rangers will be dependent on Montgomery, Gray, and their premium relievers- Leclerc, Chapman, and Sborz. I think the Astros have more flexibility.


I THINK the Astros will win today. It is close and let's hope the Astros can do better vs. Montgomery than they did in Game 1.


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